2023. This paper is the history of how the theory of inertial inflation was developed in Brazil in the early 1980s, when inflation was very high, much higher than the stagflation that happened in the United States in the previous decade.
ECONOMICS
INERTIAL INFLATION
2009. The history of the discovery of inertial inflation. The role played by the São Paulo (FGV) and the Rio (PUC) groups. (Paper: Revista de Economia Contemporânea)
2009. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). English version available.
Fernando de Holanda Barbosa (2004) "Inflation: inertia and the public deficit". Paper in the Festricht of Bresser-Pereira, Em Busca do Novo. (Paper in edited book)
1996. An account of the theory of inertial inflation original definition(Paper in Revista de Economia Política). For a more complete history, see "A descoberta da inflação inercial" (Revista Contemporânea de Economia, 2010).
1992. Revised version of the testimony to IUPERJ on the author's experience as Finance Minister in Brazil: the major crisis, the "Bresser Plan", and the negotiation of the foreign debt. Non revised version available in French. (In Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais")
1991. With Yoshiaki Nakano. This paper predicts the failure of the Collor Plan for failing to neutralize inertia, in a moment conventional orthodoxy was sure that it would be successful. English and Portuguese versions available. (Paper: Revue Tiers Monde)
1991. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A successful estabilization of high and inertial inflation will depend on the size of the 'inflationary residuum' left after a price freeze is undertaken. Examples in the Collor I and II stabilization plans. (Paper in book edited by Clovis de Faro)
1990. As early as April I said that the Plano Collor failed to control high inflation, despite its strong fiscal and monetary adjustment. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo, 27/5)
1990. Three months after the Collor Plan, the prediction of its failure. A critique of the monetarist and of the Keynesian explanation only a neo-structuralist approach based on distributive conflict and indexation can explain the return of inflation.(Paper: Indicadores Econômicos FEE)
1990. Between high inertial inflation and hyperiflation we have the present 'indexated hyperinflation' (73%) It is an intermediary stage before full hyperinflation. (Paper in book edited by JM Rego)
1989. A testimony to IUPERJ on the author's experience as Finance Minister in Brazil. I receive the finance ministry when the Great Debt Crisis of the 1980s reaches its peak with the failure of the Cruzado Plan. The emergence "Bresser Plan", and the negotiation of the foreign debt. Available in Portuguese, and in an extended version. (Published in Problèmes d'Amérique Latine)
1989. While monetarists emphasize expectation, the strucuturalist theory of inertial inflation privileges distributive conflict. When prices are being increased in a staggered or indexed way, economic agents cannot change their expectatives: they have to increase prices just to keep their share in income. PUC's Rio de Janeiro group, that participate in the formulation of the theory, are falling in a monetarist trap when they privilege expectations instead of distributive conflict. (Introductory paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
1989. Inertial inflation is accelerating in Brazil and threatening to turn into hyperinflation. An explanation of why inertial inflation is rigid is is to be reduced, but tends to increase as distributive conflict increases. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
1989. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. Portuguese version available.(Paper in book edited by Fukuchi and Kagami).
1988. A comparison between the Cruzado Plan (1986) and the Bresser Plan (1987). Portuguese version available.(Paper in Pamela Falk's edited book, 1990)
1988. A testimony to IUPERJ (Wanderley Guilherme dos Santos) on the authors experience as Finance Minister of Brazil. Available in French, and also an extended and revised version.(Discussion paper, IUPERJ)
1987. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Collected papers on the theory of inertial or indexed inflation. Translation of Inflação e Recessão (1984) with the addition of paper on the 1985 Cruzado Plan. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers) Sold out. Available in pdf
1987. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. Portuguese version available.(Paper: World Development)