Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa

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Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda

Nova Economia. 18 (3), setembro/dezembro 2008: 327-357.

Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. These were balance of payment crises triggered by a overvalued local currency and the high level of the foreign debt and/or the fast growth of the current account deficit. Given that, foreign creditors suddenly become persuaded that the country does not face just a liquidity but a solvency problem, and stop rolling over the debt. An econometric test substantiates these claims.