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Globalización y Competencia
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).
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Globalization and Competition
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).
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Globalização e Competição
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).
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Mondialisation et compétition
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte)
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Poupança externa e investimento (debate com o prof. Affonso Celso Pastore)
2010. The four articles of my debate with prof. Affonso Celso Pastore on whether or not "foreign savings" (current account deficits) contribute to investment and growth.
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Déficits, câmbio e crescimento (Estadão, 7.3.10)
2010. Critque of prof. Affonso C. Pastore view that foreign savings cause growth. (Article: O Estado de S.Paulo)
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Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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É preciso controlar o câmbio (JBrasil, 20.9.09)
2009. É preciso acabar com esta abertura financeira, que é um desastre, ao contrário da abertura comercial, que é ótima para o Brasil. Entrevista ao Jornal do Brasil, 20.9.2009
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O pré-sal e a nação (Folha, 7.9.09)
2009. Os três pilares do plano do governo sobre o pré-sal são o sistema de partilha, a Petrossal e o fundo soberano. Eles permitem que o país neutralize a doença holandesa. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa
2008. With Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda. Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. (Paper in Nova Economia).
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La tendencia a la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio
2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Economía UNAM, México, Vol. 6, No. 18). Portuguese version available.
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Pequena euforia, triste Brasil (Folha, 8.6.09)
2009. While the stocket market returns to euphony, government is helpless in relation to the real returning to overappreciate, while . (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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Small euphoria, poor Brazil (Folha, 8.6.09)
2009. Tied to the neoliberal principles of financial liberalization, our government passively watches the return of the exchange rate overvaluation. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio
2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Econômica, Rio de Janeiro, V. 11, No. 1 Spanish version available.
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Câmbio real e poupança interna (Valor, 20.8.08)
2008. Contrarily to what say conventional economists, current account deficit does not imply excess demand it may simply be the outcome of an overvalued exchange rate. (Article with Paulo Gala: Valor).
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Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth
2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).
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Poupança externa, insuficiência de demanda e baixo crescimento
2007. With Paulo Gala In João Sicsú e Carlos Vidotto, orgs. (2008) Economia do Desenvolvimento. Teoria e Políticas Keynesianas. Rio de Janeiro: Campus: 79-96.
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Por qué el ahorro externo no promueve el crecimiento?
2008. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and English versions available. (Paper: Investigación Económica).
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The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
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Macroeconomia da Estagnação:
Crítica da Ortodoxia Convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (Book: Editora 34)
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Ganho ao invés de confisco
2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)
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Bresser-Pereira critica juros altos, câmbio baixo e ajuste fiscal frouxo
2007. Interview to Cristina Borges Guimarães on "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": Brazil needs low interest rate, competitve exchange rate, and austere fiscal policy to overcome quasi-stagnation and grow (Gazeta Mercantil,21.5)
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Administrar dólar é fundamental
2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
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Desindustrialização e doença holandesa
2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Why foreign savings fail to cause growth
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
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Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Globalização comercial e financeira
2007. Commercial globalization is a major opportunity for developing countries, financial globalization, a disaster. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
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Substituição da poupança interna pela externa e seu inverso: o caso do Brasil
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)
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Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa
2005. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings that I have been doing since 2001. This version was substantially improved in 2006 receiving the new title "Why foreign savings fail to cause growth", in English, and "Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento" in Portuguese. I keep this version here just for the record. (Paper: Texto para Discussão)
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Inflação e Cambio
2005. The Lula administrtion cannot avoid exchange rate appreciation because it is trapped by its policy on the interest rate. To buy dollars is impossible given the financial costs involved.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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La Politique Macroéconomique Brésilienne (1994-2003) et le Second Consensus de Washington
2004. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Translation of "O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-estagnação do Brasil". (Paper: Problèmes d’Amérique Latine)*
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Brazil s quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy applied to Brazil. The Cardoso administration. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
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The Second Washington Consensus and Latin Americas Quasi-Stagnation
2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
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Desenvolvimento e Crise no Brasil (5a. edição)
2003. The patterns of economic development and the political pacts in Brazil from Vargas (1930) to Lula (2003). 5th revised edition almost doubling the size of the book. English version available. (Book: Editora 34)
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Economic growth with foreign savings?
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).
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Crescimento econômico com poupança externa?
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings and open capital accounts. English version available.(Paper Revista de Economia Política)*
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O segundo Consenso de Washington e a quase-estagnação da economia brasileira
2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. (Revista de Economia Politica, 23(3) July 2003).*
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Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento: o Brasil e o segundo Consenso de Washington
2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administrations poor economic performance. An d version: O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-Estagnação da Economia Brasileira. (Paper: BNDES 50 Years)*
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Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade
2001. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995. A critique of the policy on the basic interest rate, which caused a major debate in Brazil. Spanish version available. (Paper/document: Revista de Economia Política, July 2002).*
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Una Estrategia de Desarrollo con Estabilidad
2001 With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995, showing that Central Bank s basic interest rate is absurd and can be reduced. Portuguese version available. (Paper/document: Instituciones y Desarrollo, May 2002).
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Incompatibilidade distributiva e desenvolvimento auto-sustentado
2002. An overview of the Brazilian economy since the 1970s. Income concentrated in the period, but only some additional reduction in wages and salaries as a consequence of a less appreciated exchange rate will permit the country to resume growth. (Paper in book edited by Ricardo Bielschowky e Ricardo Mussi, Políticas para a Retomada do Crescimento - Reflexões de Economistas Brasileiros).
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Incompetência e confidence building por trás de 20 anos de quase estagnação da América Latina
2001. Incompetence and subordination to the North characterized Latin American economic policies since the early 1980s'. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Endividamento sem Crescimento
2002. Foreign savings financed by direct investment often increase domestic consumption instead of the increase in the rate of investment. (Folha de S.Paulo, 18.1.2002).
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A fragilidade que nasce da dependência da poupança externa
2001 The strategy of growth with foreign savings is an economic non-sense. My short original critque to this mistaken strateg.(Valor 1000, 2001).
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