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A descoberta da inflação inercial
2009. The history of the discovery of inertial inflation. The role played by the São Paulo (FGV) and the Rio (PUC) groups. (Paper: Revista de Economia Contemporânea)
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O regime de metas de inflação no Brasil e a armadilha da taxa de juros/taxa de câmbio
2009. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). English version available.
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Inflation targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian approach
2007. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). Portuguese version available.
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O salto da poupança interna
2004. Between 1998 and 2003 foreign savings fell 5% and domestic savings increased correspondingly, financed by a reduction in real wages (brought by exchange rate depreciation) and a diminution of the budget deficit. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade
2001. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995. A critique of the policy on the basic interest rate, which caused a major debate in Brazil. Spanish version available. (Paper/document: Revista de Economia Política, July 2002).*
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Una Estrategia de Desarrollo con Estabilidad
2001 With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995, showing that Central Bank s basic interest rate is absurd and can be reduced. Portuguese version available. (Paper/document: Instituciones y Desarrollo, May 2002).
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À La Recherche d'une Nouvelle Interpretation
2002. A critique of the macroeconomic policy led by Brazil after 1995. (Introduction to the French edition of Crise Économique et Réforme de l État au Brésil).
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Crise Économique et Réforme de l'État au Brésil
2002. Economic and political analysis of the crisis of the state from 1980 to 1995 in Brazil. Includes a critical introduction. Portuguese and English versions available. (Book: Maison des Sciences de l'Homme)
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Incompetência e confidence building por trás de 20 anos de quase estagnação da América Latina
2001. Incompetence and subordination to the North characterized Latin American economic policies since the early 1980s'. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Latin America’s quasi-stagnation
2001. Incompetence and subordination to the North characterized Latin American economic policies since the early 1980s'. Portuguese version available with the original title of the paper, "Incompetência e confidence building por trás de 30 anos de quase-estagnação da América Latina". (Paper in book edited by Paul Davidson).
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Crise Econômica e Reforma do Estado no Brasil
1996. The crisis of the state interpretation. Economic and political analysis of the crisis starting in 1980 in Latin America. English and French versions availalble. (Book: Editora 34)
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Economic Crisis and State Reform in Brazil
1996. The 'crisis of the state interpretation'. Economic and political analysis of the crisis starting in 1980 in Latin America. Portuguese and French versions available. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)
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A economia e a política do Plano Real
1994. The logic and the intellectual background of the Plano Real, and a collection of articles published in the press between May 1993 and June 1994 on the successful stabilization plan. (Note: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Stabilization in an adverse environment: The 1987 Brazilian experience
1993. The Bresser Plan - an atempt to stabilize prices in Brazil in an adverse environment. Portuguese version available. (Paper in book edited by John Williamson)
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Um mestre da economia brasileira: Ignácio Rangel
1992. With José Marcio Rego. Ignácio Rangel is an highly orginal anaylist of the Brazilian macroeconomy and of its development. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Contra a Corrente: A Experiência no Ministério da Fazenda
1992. Revised version of the testimony to IUPERJ on the author's experience as Finance Minister in Brazil: the major crisis, the "Bresser Plan", and the negotiation of the foreign debt. Non revised version available in French. (In Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais")
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1992 - O Plano Marcílio e a Estabilização Necessária
1992. An anlysis of the disastrous IMF sponsored 1992 stabilization plan (Marcilio Plan), and the alternatives open to the Brazilian economy. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*
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A lógica perversa da estagnação: dívida, déficit e inflação no Brasil
1991. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Revista Brasileira de Economia)
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Hyper-inflation et stabilisation au Brésil: le premier plan Collor
1991. With Yoshiaki Nakano. This paper predicts the failure of the Collor Plan for failing to neutralize inertia, in a moment conventional orthodoxy was sure that it would be successful. English and Portuguese versions available. (Paper: Revue Tiers Monde)
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Hiperinflação e estabilização no Brasil: o primeiro Plano Collor
1991. With Yoshiaki Nakano. This paper predicts the failure of the Collor Plan for failing to neutralize inertia, in a moment conventional orthodoxy was sure that it would be successful. English and French versions available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Resíduo inflacionário pós-congelamento e política monetária
1991. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A successful estabilization of high and inertial inflation will depend on the size of the 'inflationary residuum' left after a price freeze is undertaken. Examples in the Collor I and II stabilization plans. (Paper in book edited by Clovis de Faro)
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O tigre não morreu
1990. As early as April I said that the Plano Collor failed to control high inflation, despite its strong fiscal and monetary adjustment. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo, 27/5)
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Da inflação à hiperinflação: Uma abordagem estruturalista
1990. Between high inertial inflation and hyperiflation we have the present 'indexated hyperinflation' (73%) It is an intermediary stage before full hyperinflation. (Paper in book edited by JM Rego)
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Hyperinflation and stabilization in Brazil: The first Collor Plan
1990. With Yoshiaki Nakano. This paper predicts the failure of the Collor Plan for failing to neutralize inertia, in a moment conventional orthodoxy was sure that it would be successful. Portuguese and French versions available. (Paper in book edited by Davidson and Kregel).
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A teoria da inflação inercial reexaminada
1989. While monetarists emphasize expectation, the strucuturalist theory of inertial inflation privileges distributive conflict. When prices are being increased in a staggered or indexed way, economic agents cannot change their expectatives: they have to increase prices just to keep their share in income. PUC's Rio de Janeiro group, that participate in the formulation of the theory, are falling in a monetarist trap when they privilege expectations instead of distributive conflict. (Introductory paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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A aceleração da inflação inercial
1989. Inertial inflation is accelerating in Brazil and threatening to turn into hyperinflation. An explanation of why inertial inflation is rigid is is to be reduced, but tends to increase as distributive conflict increases. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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The perverse macroeconomics of debt, deficit and inflation in Brazil
1989. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. Portuguese version available.(Paper in book edited by Fukuchi and Kagami).
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Brazil's inflation and the Cruzado Plan, 1985-1988
1988. A comparison between the Cruzado Plan (1986) and the Bresser Plan (1987). Portuguese version available.(Paper in Pamela Falk's edited book, 1990)
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The Theory of Inertial Inflation
1987. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Collected papers on the theory of inertial or indexed inflation - a type of inflation that neither the monetarist nor the Keynesian approaches are able to explain. Papers since 1980. Translation of Inflação e Recessão (1984)with the addition of paper on the 1985 Cruzado Plan. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)
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Inertial inflation and the Cruzado Plan
1987. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. Portuguese version available.(Paper: World Development)
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Inflação inercial e choque heterodoxo no Brasil
1986. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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Inertial inflation and the Phillips curve
1987. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Inertial inflation is consistent with the Philips that shifts continuously to the right. Portuguese version available. (Paper in The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 109-116).
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Congelamento setorial e inflação corretiva
1985. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. A price freeze (without the neutralization of inertia) will unbalance relative prices after some time, inflation will be back. (Note: Carta de Conjuntura.
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Administrative policy: gradualism or shock
1984 [1987]. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The original paper, in Portuguese, was the first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1984, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. (Chapter 4 of Bresser-Pereira & Nakano, The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 83-107).
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Inflação e Recessão
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Collected papers on inertial inflation - a form of inflation that either the monetarist or the Keynesian approach does not explain - written since 1980. (Book: Editora Brasiliense).
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Fatores aceleradores, mantenedores e sancionadores da Inflação
1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. I believe that this paper was the first complete paper on the theory of inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Anais do X Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC, December 1983. Also in Revista de Economia Política)
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Inflação, desequilíbrio externo e salários
1981 With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of Adroaldo Moura da Silva's paper proposing the control of inflation through wage reduction. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política )*
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Inflação no capitalismo de Estado (e a experiência brasileira recente)
1981 This paper explains stagflation with the administrative or cost theory of inflation emphasizing money endogeneity. This paper contains my first vision of inertial inflation: in one of the sessions I explain high inflation by the fact that firms A, B, and C index their princes increasing them according to the going rate of inflation in a staggered way. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Inflação e correção monetária das cemonstrações financeiras
1976. Since 1974 Brazil counts with a legal system to index financial statements that is similar to the one Sylvio Luiz Bresser-Pereira and I proposed in a 1963 paper. (Article: O Estado de S. Paulo).
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Uma Crítica aos Herdeiros: Debate sobre a Recessão 74/75
1975. The recession starting in 1974 explained by an increase in the profit rate higher than the increase in the technobureaucrtic middle class' salaries.(Note: Opinião)
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O Brasil já tem o que ensinar sobre inflação
1971. There is a cost or "administrative" component in inflation. By expanding the economy, this factor is being taken into consideraton, and inflation, that followed by orthodox measures between 1964 and 1967, continues to fall. (Note: Visão, Caderno "Brasil 71"
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Inflação e lucros da empresa
1964. With Sylvio Luiz Bresser-Pereira. How to measure real profits in a realm of high inflation by indexing financial reports. This paper outlines the system that later on was officially introduced in the Brazilian law to index balance sheets and profit and loss statements. See also 1976 article. (Paper: Revista de Administração de Empresas)
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Inflação e lucros da empresa
1964. With Sylvio Luiz Bresser-Pereira. How to measure real profits in a realm of high inflation by indexing financial reports. This paper outlines the system that later on was officially introduced in the Brazilian law to index balance sheets and profit and loss statements. See also 1976 article. (Paper: Revista de Administração de Empresas)
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A Inflação Decifrada
1996. An account of the theory of inertial inflation original development in São Paulo (FGV) and Rio de Janeiro (PUC) in the early 1980s (Paper in Revista de Economia Política). *
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Estabilização em um ambiente adverso: a experiência brasileira de 1987
1993. The Plano Bresser was a 1987 atempt to stabilize prices in Brazil in an adverse environment. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política).
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A Crise do Estado: Ensaios sobre a Economia Brasileira
1992. Collected papers written between 1987 and 1991 analyzing the Brazilian foreign debt crisis, fiscal crisis of the state, and inflation. (Book: Editora Nobel)
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Inflação inercial e Plano Cruzado
1986. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. "Inflação inercial e choque heterodoxo in Brazil" written with Y.Nakano is a similar work. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Inflação inercial e curva de Phillips
1986. With Yoshikaki Nakano. Inertial inflation is consistent with the Philips that shifts continuously to the right. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Política administrativa de controle da inflação
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1983, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política
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A Armadilha Teórica da Política de Estabilização
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Survey of the book Brasil x FMI: Armadilha da Recessão with articles by Belluzzo, Cardoso, Rezende, Arida. (Survey: Revista de Economia Política)
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As Contradições da Inflação Brasileira
1980. Brazilian inflation is consequence of distributive conflict involving the transference of income from the poor to the rich. Monopolist and monopsonist power facilitates such transference. (Paper: Encontros com a Civilização Brasileira)
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O Plano Real em 1993 e 1994
1993-1994. Collection of the articles published in the Brazilian press on the Real Plan between November 1993 (before it was announced) and August 1994. (Published only here)
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Os dois congelamentos de preços no Brasil: Plano Cruzado e Plano Bresser
1988. A comparisson between the Cruzado Plan (1986) and the Bresser Plan (1987. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política).
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