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Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento e novo desenvolvimentismo
2010. With Paulo Gala. A summary of the structuralist development macroeconomics: the theory that is behind new developmentalism, the national development strategy required for catching up. (Paper to be published).).
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Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento e novo desenvolvimentismo
2010. With Paulo Gala. A summary of the structuralist development macroeconomics: the theory that is behind new developmentalism, the national development strategy required for catching up. (Paper to be published).).
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A macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento por trás do novo desenvolvimentismo - breve nota
2010. In Globalization and Competitiion, behind the "new developmentalism" (a national development strategy) there is a "structuralist development macroeconomics" . (Note to be published in this website)
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Globalización y Competencia
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).
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Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)
2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still bileve that foreign savings cause grouth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)
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Globalization and Competition
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).
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Globalização e Competição
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).
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Mondialisation et compétition
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte)
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Taxa de câmbio, doença holandesa, e industrialização
2010. The Brazilian economy is undergoing moderate deindustrialization due to a chronic overvaluation of the real. The structural development macroeconomics that I have been developing since the early 2000s explains why. (Short article)
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Globalization and competition (Folha, 2.11.09)
2009. In this book with this title, I propose a new theory – structuralist development macroeconomics – and its corresponding strategy: the new developmentalism. Folha de S.Paulo, November 2, 2009
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From old to new developmentalism in Latin America
2009. New developmentalism is an alternative strategy to conventional orthodoxy and to old national developmentalism. It argues for the neutralization of the tendency of the exchange rate to appreciate and for fiscal responsibility.(Paper)
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Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa
2008. With Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda. Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. (Paper in Nova Economia).
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Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth
2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).
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Poupança externa, insuficiência de demanda e baixo crescimento
2007. With Paulo Gala In João Sicsú e Carlos Vidotto, orgs. (2008) Economia do Desenvolvimento. Teoria e Políticas Keynesianas. Rio de Janeiro: Campus: 79-96.
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Por qué el ahorro externo no promueve el crecimiento?
2008. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and English versions available. (Paper: Investigación Económica).
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The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
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Estado y mercado en el nuevo desarrollismo
2007. This is a reduced version of a "Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional". It compares three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington,s conventional orthodoxy. Portuguese version available. (Paper: Nueva Sociedad)
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Macroeconomia da Estagnação:
Crítica da Ortodoxia Convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (Book: Editora 34)
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Why foreign savings fail to cause growth
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
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The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
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Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa
2005. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings that I have been doing since 2001. This version was substantially improved in 2006 receiving the new title "Why foreign savings fail to cause growth", in English, and "Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento" in Portuguese. I keep this version here just for the record. (Paper: Texto para Discussão)
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A maldição dos recursos naturais
2005. In this small article I drafted the model of the Dutch disease with two equilibrium exchange rates. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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The Second Washington Consensus and Latin Americas Quasi-Stagnation
2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
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Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento: o Brasil e o segundo Consenso de Washington
2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administrations poor economic performance. An d version: O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-Estagnação da Economia Brasileira. (Paper: BNDES 50 Years)*
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Decisões estratégicas e overlapping consensus na América Latina
2001. There are some consensus and some strategic decisions to be taken in Latin America, after the crisis of structuralism, and of orthodox reforms. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Economic reforms and economic growth: efficiency and politics in Latin America
1992. Stabilization and other market-oriented economic reforms face a double challenge in new democracies: they have to be economically effective and politically feasible. Since 1980 Latin America faced a debt crisis and a crisis of the state. Now, two competing interpretations are present the neo-liberal Washington Consensus and the fiscal crisis of the state approach. The later anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Chapter 1 of Economic Reforms in New Democracies).
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Economic reforms in new democracies: a social-democratic approach
1993. With José María Maravall and Adam Przeworski. The neoliberal economic reforms enacted by Latin Americas and Eastern Europes new democracies have proven inefficient and at times even ineffective. This derives both from a lack of political support and from the dogmatic orthodoxy adopted. This paper corresponds to the Introduction to the book Economic Reforms in New Democracies, 1993. Portuguese version available. (Paper in book by Bresser-Pereira, Maravall Przeworski).
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Reformas Econômicas em Democracias Novas
1993. With Adam Przeworski and José María Maravall. A social democratic approach and also a crisis of the state approach to economic reforms in new democracies. English and Spanish versions available.(Editora Nobel, 1996)
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O fim do triunfalismo neoliberal
1994. Neoliberal triumphalism is dead. Democratic consolidation in Latin America and Eastern Europe will not be achieved by dismantling the state organization, but by rebuilding it. (Article in "Folha de S. Paulo"),
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Off the mark: the misguided policies of Washington economists
1992. When the costs involved in a given economic policy become excessive, the decision not to adopt the policy is rational rather than political. Reforms that are inefficient are irrational. (Note: Harvard International Review)
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A crise da América Latina: Consenso de Washington ou crise fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. English, French, and Spanish versions available. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 21(1), abril 1991: 3-23.
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La crisis de América Latina. ¿Consenso de Washington o crisis fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English, and French versions available. (Paper: Pensamiento Iberamericano)
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La crise de la Amérique Latine: Consensus de Washington ou crise budgétaire?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Problèmes dAmerique Latine).
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Economic crisis in Latin America: Washington consensus or fical crisis approach?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, French, and Spanish versions available.
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