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The political economy of global economic disgovernance
2005. There is no financial order in the world. The the enormous US current account deficit in the US points out to a hard landing. Portuguese version available.(Texto para Discussão EESP 151)
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Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism in Latin America
2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)
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The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
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Instituições mortas
2007. IMF and World Bank are dead institutions. The former engaged in the growth cum foreign savings policy the later, with neo-liberal reforms. Both represent the interest of the rich countries. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Macroeconomia da Estagnação:
Crítica da Ortodoxia Convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (Book: Editora 34)
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Alternativa de Política Econômica
2006. There is an alternative to the conventional orthodoxy rulling the Brazilian economy. On Nakano. (Interview to Catia Seabra: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Idéias para um país que precisa crescer
2006. Debate on economic growth of Brazil with Eliana Cardoso, Ricardo Carneiro e Samuel Pessoa. (O Estado de São Paulo, Aliás Debate)
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Agendas e objetivos diferentes
2006. 'New developmentalism' is a third alternative between the conventional wisdom and the dominated or populist wisdom. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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O sistema econômico brasileiro
2005. The Brazilian economic system's inner logic is not economic growth but providing high interest rates for local and foreign rentiers. (Note: Conjuntura Econômica)*.
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Brazil s quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy applied to Brazil. The Cardoso administration. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
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Professionals capitalism and democracy
2004. The rise of the professional middle class, knowledge as the new strategic factor of production, and the implications for democracy. The correspondent concept of capital.Portuguese version available.(Paper in book honoring J. K. Galbraith).
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Incompetência e confidence building por trás de 20 anos de quase estagnação da América Latina
2001. Incompetence and subordination to the North characterized Latin American economic policies since the early 1980s'. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Self-Interest and Incompetence
2001. Besides self-interests a second variable is turning increasingly relevant: policymakers’ technical and emotional incompetence. Portuguese version available. (Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Spring 2001). *
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O contrato social ausente
1998. With Yoshiaki Nakano. It is misleading to attribute economic difficulties to politicians and bureaucrats, since incompetent and self-interest policies decided by economists are also responsible. This is more so when the country misses an effective social contract. English version available. (Paper in Estado e Sociedade). This is an imptovred version of "A origem política dos problemas econômicos" (1995).
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A luta dos economistas por poder
1997. Why the Brazilian economists have so much power? A review of Maria Rita Loureiro book, Os Economistas no Poder. (Book review: Folha de S.Paulo, Mais! 15.6.97)
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Net and total transition costs the timing of economic reform
1997. With Jairo Abud. The difference between the short term costs of adjusting an economy and the costs of procrastinating adjustment and reform are the net transition costs. In the limit, they determine the moment reform begins. (Paper World Development)*
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Conditionality and Transfer Games between The World Bank and LDCs
1993. With Gesner de Oliveira. Given high and low conditionality and positive and negative transfers, 'games' between World Bank and developing countries may be winners'game, conflictive game, permissive game, and potential winners'game. (Paper published only here)
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Reformas econômicas em tempos anormais
1993. IMF adjustment programs and World Banks structural reforms ignore that the Brazilian economy faces abnormal times. (Paper in Revista da USP)
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Economic reforms and economic growth: efficiency and politics in Latin America
1992. Stabilization and other market-oriented economic reforms face a double challenge in new democracies: they have to be economically effective and politically feasible. Since 1980 Latin America faced a debt crisis and a crisis of the state. Now, two competing interpretations are present the neo-liberal Washington Consensus and the fiscal crisis of the state approach. The later anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Chapter 1 of Economic Reforms in New Democracies).
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Economic reforms in new democracies: a social-democratic approach
1993. With José María Maravall and Adam Przeworski. The neoliberal economic reforms enacted by Latin Americas and Eastern Europes new democracies have proven inefficient and at times even ineffective. This derives both from a lack of political support and from the dogmatic orthodoxy adopted. This paper corresponds to the Introduction to the book Economic Reforms in New Democracies, 1993. Portuguese version available. (Paper in book by Bresser-Pereira, Maravall Przeworski).
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Populismo econômico versus Keynes: a reinterpretação do déficit público na América Latina
1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance. English version available.(Paper: edit book)
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A crise da América Latina: Consenso de Washington ou crise fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. English, French, and Spanish versions available. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 21(1), abril 1991: 3-23.
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La crise de la Amérique Latine: Consensus de Washington ou crise budgétaire?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Problèmes dAmerique Latine).
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La crisis de América Latina. ¿Consenso de Washington o crisis fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English, and French versions available. (Paper: Pensamiento Iberamericano)
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La crise de la Amérique Latine: Consensus de Washington ou crise budgétaire?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Problèmes dAmerique Latine).
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Economic crisis in Latin America: Washington consensus or fical crisis approach?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, French, and Spanish versions available.
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Populism and economic policy in Brazil
1991. Economic populism, left’s protectionism, and the right’s monetarist orthodoxy are together major obstacles to consistent and rational economic policies and reforms. Portuguese version with the title "Ideologias econômicas e democracia no Brasil" available. (Paper: Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs)
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Os Tempos Heróicos de Collor e Zélia
1991. Collection of articles analysing the rights and wrongs that characterized the first two extraordinary years of the Collor administration. After that, a change of ministry inaugurated the rendition of Brazil to the Washington consensus. (Editora Nobel)
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Populismo Econômico (coletânea)
1991. Edited book collecting papers on economic populism, including 'classical papers' by Canitrot and O'Donnell. (Editora Nobel)
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A pragmatic approach to State intervention
1990.The neoliberal wave can be understood in the framework of my theory of the cyclical character of state intervention. (Paper: Revista de La CEPAL)
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Economic ideologies and the consolidation of democracy in Brazil
1989. The transition to democracy was an outcome of successful political popular-business pact, but mistaken ideoloiges originated in old nationalism and left populism, and on conservative clientelism, opportunism, social conservatism, monetarism, crude liberalism, and subordinated internationalism represent an obstacle to democratic consolidation and growth in Brazil. Portuguese version available.
(Paper in book edited by Diane Ethier)
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Ideologias econômicas e democracia no Brasil
1989. The transition to democracy was an outcome of successful political popular-business pact, but mistaken ideoloiges originated in old nationalism and left populism, and on conservative clientelism, opportunism, social conservatism, monetarism, crude liberalism, and subordinated internationalism represent an obstacle to democratic consolidation and growth in Brazil. (Paper: Estudos Avançados). English version available.
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A debtor's approach to the debt crisis
1989. The Brazilian crisis in the 1980s as a debt and a fiscal crisis. A summary of the negotiations. The solution of the debt crisis requires that creditors accept the seccuritization of the debt with a discount. Portuguese version available. (Paper in book edited by Christine Bogdanowicz-Bindert).
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A economia do subdesenvolvimento industrializado
1975. The basic characteristics of growth model that prevailed during the military regime: the technobureaucratic-capitalist model of industrialized underdevelopment. In macroeconomic terms it was based on the supply side on the production of luxury goods, on the demand side, on concentration of income from the middle-class upwards. (Estudos Cebrap)
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El nuevo modelo brasileño de desarrollo
1974. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Portuguese and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
(Paper: Desarrollo Economico)
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O novo modelo brasileiro de desenvolvimento
1973. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Spanish and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
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O Brasil já tem o que ensinar sobre inflação
1971. There is a cost or "administrative" component in inflation. By expanding the economy, this factor is being taken into consideraton, and inflation, that followed by orthodox measures between 1964 and 1967, continues to fall. (Note: Visão, Caderno "Brasil 71"
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Dividir ou multiplicar? A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira
1970. My first analysis of the "new development model" that begins in Brazil in the late 1960s. Contrarily to what Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. "O novo modelo de desenvolvimento" (1973) elaborates on this paper.####(Paper: Visão)
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The Missing Social Contract
1998. With Yoshiaki Nakano. It is misleading to attribute economic difficulties to politicians and bureaucrats, since incompetent and self-interest policies decided by economists are also responsible. This is more so when the country misses an effective social contract. Portuguese version available. (Paper in edited book by Ducatenzeiler and Oxhorn)
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A Origem Política dos Problemas Econômicos
1995. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of the conventional wisdom that economic problems have a political origin. (Paper in Revista de Economia Política)*
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The crisis of the state approach to Latin America
1993. After the dependency interpretation of Latin America, now two competing interpretations are present: the neoliberal Washington Consensus and what I propose: the fiscal crisis of the state approach. Portuguese and French versions available. This paper is a preliminary version of my chapter in Economic Reforms in New Democracies (1993). The "fiscal crisis approach" anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Instituto Norte-Sul Discussion Paper)
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The crisis of the state approach to Latin America
1993. After the dependency interpretation of Latin America, now two competing interpretations are present: the neoliberal Washington Consensus and what I propose: the fiscal crisis of the state approach. Portuguese and French versions available. This paper is a preliminary version of my chapter in Economic Reforms in New Democracies (1993). The "fiscal crisis approach" anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Instituto Norte-Sul Discussion Paper)
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Economic populism versus Keynes: reinterpreting budget Deficit in Latin America
1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance.
Portuguese version available.(Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
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Os limites da política econômica
1988. Economic policy should follow the rationality principle, but ideological constraints in the right and the left, and the limitations of economic theory make such rationality problematic. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Os limites da política econômica
1988. Economic policy should follow the rationality principle, but ideological constraints in the right and the left, and the limitations of economic theory make such rationality problematic. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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The post-1966 expansion and the new model
1970/73 [1984]. This chapter 7 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983 (1984) corresponds to "Dividir ou multiplicar?" (1970) and to "O novo modelo brasileiro de desenvolvimento" (1973). It claims that the Brazilian "economic miracle" that beggins in 1967 signalled a new model of development export oriented and making consistent aggregate demand and supply of luxury goods by concentrating income from the middle class upwards. (Chapter 7 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983)
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Auto-Interesse e Incompetência
2003. A second variable, besides self-interest, is turning increasingly relevant: policymakers’ incompetence. English version available. (Revista Brasileira de Economia). *
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