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A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio no Brasil
2010. The tendency to the cyclical overevaluation of the exchange rate in developing countries is easily seen in Brazil. (Paper in edited book)
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Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)
2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still bileve that foreign savings cause grouth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)
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Doença holandesa e desindustrialização (Valor, 25.11.09)
2009. Uma doença holandesa moderada e a consequente desindustrialização são evidente. Nega-se o fato porque no momento em que isto for reconhecido não restará alternativa senão mudar a política cambial. Valor Econômico, 25.11.2009
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Dutch disease and de-industrialization (Valor, 25.11.09)
2009. Brazilian de-industrialization is evident. People resist to acknowledge that because in the moment they do that, a new exchange rate policy turns inevitable. Valor Econômico, November 25, 2009
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Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Brasil perdeu idéia de Nação (Site:www.itv.org.br, 24.8.07)
2007. In globalization nations compete commercially. As Brazil lost the idea of nation, and follows economic policies recommended by our competitors instead of adopting a national growth strategy, it is falling behind. (Entrevista: Instituto Teotônio Vilela)
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Macroeconomia da Estagnação:
Crítica da Ortodoxia Convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation. (Book: Editora 34)
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A política de juros e de câmbio está no rumo do crescimento? (Estadão, 1.8.07)
2007. Debate with Ilan Goldfajn a good way of comparing new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy. (Two pages in O Estado de S.Paulo)
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Bresser-Pereira critica juros altos, câmbio baixo e ajuste fiscal frouxo
2007. Interview to Cristina Borges Guimarães on "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": Brazil needs low interest rate, competitve exchange rate, and austere fiscal policy to overcome quasi-stagnation and grow (Gazeta Mercantil,21.5)
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Para Bresser, Brasil está em ciclo vicioso
2007. Interview to Cristiane Barbieri on Bresser-Pereira's latest book Macroeconomia da Estagnação. New developmentalism is a third discourse between old developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy.(Interview: Folha de S.Paulo).
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Administrar dólar é fundamental
2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
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PAC apenas não resolverá
2007. PAC is an welcomed program for the coordination of investments, but without a competent macroeconomic policy it will not make Brasil resume real economic growth.(Entrevista a Françoise Terzian, GVexecutivo)
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Prefácio a Economia Brasileira na Encruzilhada
2006. After a major favorable external chock that doubled its exports in five years, the Brazilian economy faces a major opportunity to resumed sustained economic growht. (Preface to Economia Brasileira na Encruzilhada, 2006)
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The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
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Juros, câmbio e ajuste fiscal
2006. Fiscal adjustment is always necessary, but, contrarilly to what conventional orthodoxy says, it is not its lack in Brazil that explain the astronomic interest rates. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Substituição da poupança interna pela externa e seu inverso: o caso do Brasil
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)
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Como baixar o nível dos juros
2006. The basic steps required to Brazil get out of the interest rate trap in which it is. A change in the 'regiime' of monetary policy is necessary. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Transferência indevida e injusta
2006. Labor revenues decreased in real between 1994 and 2004, despite a small increase in per capita income. The incongruency comes out of the interest paid to rentiers. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
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O sistema econômico brasileiro
2005. The Brazilian economic system's inner logic is not economic growth but providing high interest rates for local and foreign rentiers. (Note: Conjuntura Econômica)*.
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Uma agenda nacional
2004. What should be the national agenda, as it was discussed in the 1o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getúlio Vargas". (Note: Conjuntura Econômica)
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Brazil s quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy applied to Brazil. The Cardoso administration. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
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Proposta de desenvolvimento para o Brasil
2004. Summarized view of what is needed for Brazil achieve macroeconomic stability and resume growth. (Testimony to the Brazilian Câmara dos Deputados, published in Revista de Economia Política, October 2004)
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Economic reforms and economic growth: efficiency and politics in Latin America
1992. Stabilization and other market-oriented economic reforms face a double challenge in new democracies: they have to be economically effective and politically feasible. Since 1980 Latin America faced a debt crisis and a crisis of the state. Now, two competing interpretations are present the neo-liberal Washington Consensus and the fiscal crisis of the state approach. The later anticipates the 2003 "new developmentalism". (Paper: Chapter 1 of Economic Reforms in New Democracies).
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Economic reforms in new democracies: a social-democratic approach
1993. With José María Maravall and Adam Przeworski. The neoliberal economic reforms enacted by Latin Americas and Eastern Europes new democracies have proven inefficient and at times even ineffective. This derives both from a lack of political support and from the dogmatic orthodoxy adopted. This paper corresponds to the Introduction to the book Economic Reforms in New Democracies, 1993. Portuguese version available. (Paper in book by Bresser-Pereira, Maravall Przeworski).
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1992 - O Plano Marcílio e a Estabilização Necessária
1992. An anlysis of the disastrous IMF sponsored 1992 stabilization plan (Marcilio Plan), and the alternatives open to the Brazilian economy. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*
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A lógica perversa da estagnação: dívida, déficit e inflação no Brasil
1991. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Revista Brasileira de Economia)
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A crise gerou um consenso retórico e, às vezes, perverso
1989. The economic crisis that Brazil faces originated a consensus expressed in Jo Soares's eight items list. Yet, such consensus is rhetoric since it does not involve action to solve the problems. (Note: Economia em Perspectiva)
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The perverse macroeconomics of debt, deficit and inflation in Brazil
1989. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. Portuguese version available.(Paper in book edited by Fukuchi and Kagami).
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Changing patterns of financing investment in Brazil
1987. Investment used to be financed by the state. Yet, given the fiscal crisis of the state, the private sector is supposed to play a more active role. First paper where I discuss the fiscal crisis of the state. Portuguese version available(Paper)
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Inflação inercial e choque heterodoxo no Brasil
1986. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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Administrative policy: gradualism or shock
1984 [1987]. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The original paper, in Portuguese, was the first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1984, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. (Chapter 4 of Bresser-Pereira & Nakano, The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 83-107).
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The crisis of the 1970s
1983 [1984]. A survey of the 1970s and an analysis of the causes of the crisis beginning in 1981: reversion of the economic cycle as consequence of overaccumulation, and the debt crisis. Portuguese version available. (Chapter 8 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983)
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Auge e declínio nos anos setenta
1983. A survey of the 1970s and an analysis of the causes of the crisis beginning in 1981: reversion of the economic cycle as consequence of overaccumulation, and the debt crisis. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Despesas do Estado, repartição e valor
1982. In the modern technobureaucratic-capitalist state, market and state coordination of the economy are intrinsically connected. In economic terms the state is producer, income distributor, and coordinator.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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A política econômica endógena
1981. Economic policy is becoming endogenous as the state gets imobilized for fiscal and financial reasons.
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A economia do subdesenvolvimento industrializado
1975. The basic characteristics of growth model that prevailed during the military regime: the technobureaucratic-capitalist model of industrialized underdevelopment. In macroeconomic terms it was based on the supply side on the production of luxury goods, on the demand side, on concentration of income from the middle-class upwards. (Estudos Cebrap)
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El nuevo modelo brasileño de desarrollo
1974. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Portuguese and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
(Paper: Desarrollo Economico)
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O novo modelo brasileiro de desenvolvimento
1973. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Spanish and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
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Dividir ou multiplicar? A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira
1970. My first analysis of the "new development model" that begins in Brazil in the late 1960s. Contrarily to what Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. "O novo modelo de desenvolvimento" (1973) elaborates on this paper.####(Paper: Visão)
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Mudanças no padrão de financiamento do investimento no Brasil
1987. Investment used to be financed by the state. Yet, given the fiscal crisis of the state, the private sector is supposed to play a more active role. First paper where I discuss the fiscal crisis of the state. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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A composição financeira do déficit público
1987. Interest expenditures and real state expenditures have different consequences on aggregate demand. Thus a contry may have a public deficit whose origin are the interests paid consistent with insufficient demand and unemployment. This was what occurred in the Brazilian economy in 1985. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*
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Inflação inercial e Plano Cruzado
1986. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. "Inflação inercial e choque heterodoxo in Brazil" written with Y.Nakano is a similar work. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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A Economia Possível com Tancredo
1984. A short (11 pages) proposal on how do deal with the main economic problems of Brazil written when Tancredo Neves was to be elected president of Brazil. (Conference: Folha de S.Paulo)
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Política administrativa de controle da inflação
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1983, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política
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A estratégia brasileira de desenvolvimento entre 1967 e 1973
1977. Two strategies increasing demand were central in the Brazilian 1967-73 'miracle': the concentration of income benefiting the middle class and the rich and an active export policy. (Paper: Revista de Administração de Empresas).
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The post-1966 expansion and the new model
1970/73 [1984]. This chapter 7 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983 (1984) corresponds to "Dividir ou multiplicar?" (1970) and to "O novo modelo brasileiro de desenvolvimento" (1973). It claims that the Brazilian "economic miracle" that beggins in 1967 signalled a new model of development export oriented and making consistent aggregate demand and supply of luxury goods by concentrating income from the middle class upwards. (Chapter 7 of Development and Crisis in Brazil: 1930-1983)
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