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Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento e novo desenvolvimentismo
2010. With Paulo Gala. A summary of the structuralist development macroeconomics: the theory that is behind new developmentalism, the national development strategy required for catching up. (Paper to be published).).
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Globalización y Competencia
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).
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Globalization and Competition
2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).
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Globalização e Competição
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).
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Mondialisation et compétition
2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte)
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Keynesianismo vulgar e o Novo-desenvolvimentismo (Valor, 5.2.10)
2010. With José Luís Oreiro. Populist Keynesians are for chronic public deficits. Keynes only supported budget deficits in recession moments, and to finance investment, not current expenditures. (Article: Valor).
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Keynesianismo vulgar y el neo-desarrollismo (La Onda, 02.10)
2010. With José Luís Oreiro. Populist Keynesians are for chronic public deficits. Keynes only supported budget deficits in recession moments, and to finance investment, not current expenditures. (Article: La Onda digital).
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From old to new developmentalism in Latin America
2009. New developmentalism is an alternative strategy to conventional orthodoxy and to old national developmentalism. It argues for the neutralization of the tendency of the exchange rate to appreciate and for fiscal responsibility.(Paper)
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Poupança externa, insuficiência de demanda e baixo crescimento
2007. With Paulo Gala In João Sicsú e Carlos Vidotto, orgs. (2008) Economia do Desenvolvimento. Teoria e Políticas Keynesianas. Rio de Janeiro: Campus: 79-96.
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Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth
2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).
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Inflation targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian approach
2007. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). Portuguese version available.
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O regime de metas de inflação no Brasil e a armadilha da taxa de juros/taxa de câmbio
2009. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). English version available.
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Por qué el ahorro externo no promueve el crecimiento?
2008. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and English versions available. (Paper: Investigación Económica).
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Why foreign savings fail to cause growth
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
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Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
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Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?
2006. The exchange rate determines not only exports and imports, but also real wages, consumption and the savings rate. (Preface to book edited by Mathias Vernengo)
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La Politique Macroéconomique Brésilienne (1994-2003) et le Second Consensus de Washington
2004. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Translation of "O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-estagnação do Brasil". (Paper: Problèmes d’Amérique Latine)*
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The Second Washington Consensus and Latin Americas Quasi-Stagnation
2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
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Economic growth with foreign savings?
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).
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Crescimento econômico com poupança externa?
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings and open capital accounts. English version available.(Paper Revista de Economia Política)*
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Prefácio a Macroeconomia do Emprego e da Renda: Keynes e o Keynesianismo
2003. In last years the fact that neoclassical macroeconomics is not used by central banks became evident. (Preface to the book edited by Gilberto Tadeu Lima and João Sicsú)
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As três formas de desvalorização cambial
1997. An disguised (because I was part of the Cardoso administration) critique of exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil after the Real Plan. (Paper in Revista de Economia Política). *
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Net and total transition costs the timing of economic reform
1997. With Jairo Abud. The difference between the short term costs of adjusting an economy and the costs of procrastinating adjustment and reform are the net transition costs. In the limit, they determine the moment reform begins. (Paper World Development)*
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Populismo econômico versus Keynes: a reinterpretação do déficit público na América Latina
1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance. English version available.(Paper: edit book)
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Taxa de juros e os investimentos
1991. A 1990 repetition of a research on the motives to invest of major Brazilian firms originally conducted in 1970. And a comparison between the two results, showing that with the rise of the interest rate, it became more relevant in the decision process. (Research report/NPP/EAESP/FGV).
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A teoria da inflação inercial reexaminada
1989. While monetarists emphasize expectation, the strucuturalist theory of inertial inflation privileges distributive conflict. When prices are being increased in a staggered or indexed way, economic agents cannot change their expectatives: they have to increase prices just to keep their share in income. PUC's Rio de Janeiro group, that participate in the formulation of the theory, are falling in a monetarist trap when they privilege expectations instead of distributive conflict. (Introductory paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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A aceleração da inflação inercial
1989. Inertial inflation is accelerating in Brazil and threatening to turn into hyperinflation. An explanation of why inertial inflation is rigid is is to be reduced, but tends to increase as distributive conflict increases. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)
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Inertial inflation and the Cruzado Plan
1987. Paper written a four months after the Cruzado Plan was lauched to control inertial inflation. The two main dangers the plan was facing were relative prices desiquilibria left by the plan and an increasing budget deficit. Portuguese version available.(Paper: World Development)
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Inertial inflation and the Phillips curve
1987. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Inertial inflation is consistent with the Philips that shifts continuously to the right. Portuguese version available. (Paper in The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 109-116).
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Administrative policy: gradualism or shock
1984 [1987]. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The original paper, in Portuguese, was the first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1984, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. (Chapter 4 of Bresser-Pereira & Nakano, The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 83-107).
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Inflação e Recessão
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Collected papers on inertial inflation - a form of inflation that either the monetarist or the Keynesian approach does not explain - written since 1980. (Book: Editora Brasiliense).
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Fatores aceleradores, mantenedores e sancionadores da Inflação
1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. I believe that this paper was the first complete paper on the theory of inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Anais do X Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC, December 1983. Also in Revista de Economia Política)
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Fatores aceleradores, mantenedores e sancionadores da Inflação
1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. I believe that this paper was the first complete paper on the theory of inertial inflation. English version available. (Paper: Anais do X Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC, December 1983. Also in Revista de Economia Política)
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Inflação no capitalismo de Estado (e a experiência brasileira recente)
1981 This paper explains stagflation with the administrative or cost theory of inflation emphasizing money endogeneity. This paper contains my first vision of inertial inflation: in one of the sessions I explain high inflation by the fact that firms A, B, and C index their princes increasing them according to the going rate of inflation in a staggered way. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Resenha de Acumulação de Capital e Demanda Efetiva
1985. Review of book by Jorge Miglioli,Acumulação de Capital e Demanda Efetiva in which the author presents the Marxist view of effective demand. (Review in Revista de Economia Política)
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Acumulação de capital, lucros e juros
1974 [1991]. A survey of the theory of the decision to invest and a critique of the neoclassical emphasis on the interests or on the nomal proftits. Investments, as the classical economists knew, depend essentially on profit expectations substantially higher than the interst rate. Variations in the expected profit rate are more important in explaining capital accumulation than variations in the interest rate. It elaborates "A decisião de investir, os lucros e os juros". (Paper: Texto para Discussão FGV Economia)
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Contabilidade social
1968. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Basic concepts of social accounting, emphasizing the ex-post equality of product, income and expenditure. (Apostila FGV/SP)
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A Inflação Decifrada
1996. An account of the theory of inertial inflation original development in São Paulo (FGV) and Rio de Janeiro (PUC) in the early 1980s (Paper in Revista de Economia Política). *
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The Irreductibility of Macro to Microeconomics: a Methodological Approach
1996. With Gilberto Tadeu Lima. While microeconomics is logic-deductive, macroeconomics is a historical discipline, requiring an inductive-deductive approach. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *
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Economic populism versus Keynes: reinterpreting budget Deficit in Latin America
1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance.
Portuguese version available.(Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
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Investment Decision and the Interest Rate in Normal and Exceptional Times
1991. Based on research conducted in 1970 and repeated in 1990, this paper shows that, in 'abnormal times', when the interest rate is abnormally high, business enterprises' decisions on investment take into consideration the interest rate more attentively than they do in normal times. (Paper presented to LASA meeting)
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A composição financeira do déficit público
1987. Interest expenditures and real state expenditures have different consequences on aggregate demand. Thus a contry may have a public deficit whose origin are the interests paid consistent with insufficient demand and unemployment. This was what occurred in the Brazilian economy in 1985. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*
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Política administrativa de controle da inflação
1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1983, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política
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A decisão de investir, os lucros e os juros
1970. Adopting a classical perspective, this paper argues that variations in the expected profit rate and the corresponding shifts of the marginal efficiency of capital curve are more important in explaining investments than variations in the interest rate. I further developed this analysis in "Acumulação de capital, lucros e juros". (Paper: Texto para Discussão)
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Da macroeconomia clássica à keynesiana
1968 [1976]. A critique of microeconomics, and an analysis of the transition from classical to Keynesian macroeconomics.(Apostila FGV/SP, 42 pages)
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