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Empresariado industrial, democracia e poder político
2009. With Eli Diniz. Brazilian industrialist ceased to be part of the dominant political coalition in the late 1980s in the 2000s, as new developmentalism is being discussed, there are signals that they are comming back. (Paper in Novos Estudos Cebrap).
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Arauto do Estado Republicano (Gestão Publica, 06.09)
2009. "Herald of Republican Rights". A capable state is the one able to protect the res publica against powerful individuals who search to privatize the state. (Interview to Gustavo Falleiros)
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La tendencia a la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio
2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Economía UNAM, México, Vol. 6, No. 18). Portuguese version available.
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A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio
2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Econômica, Rio de Janeiro, V. 11, No. 1 Spanish version available.
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Burocracia pública na construção do Brasil
2008. Brazilian public bureaucracy always played a major role in the construction of the Brazilian nation and of the Brazilian state. (Draft of future book)
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Depois do consenso neoliberal, o retorno dos empresários industriais?
2008. With Eli Diniz. Brazilian industrial entrepreneurs associated with the state bureaucracy were dominant from 1930 to late 1980s. Now, they may be returning to power. At least they are better prepared for that. (Paper to be published)
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Burocracia pública e classes dirigentes no Brasil
2007. The Brazilian state bureaucracy was part of the ruling class in association with the industrial bourgeoisie between the 1930s and the 1980s. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Sociologia e Política (Univ.Paraná).
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Os ciclos da sociedade e do Estado
2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century (Nação e Desenvolvimento and Democracia e Justiça), followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition at state level. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Chained cycles of society and the state in Brazil
2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, “Nação e Desenvolvimento”, corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , “Democracia e Justiça Social”, begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
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Public bureaucracy and ruling classes in Brazil
2007. The brazilian state bureaucracy was part of the ruling class in association with the industrial bourgeoisie between the 1930s and the 1980s. Portuguese version available. paper Revista de Sociologia e Política.
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Bureaucratie publique et réforme gestionnaire
2007. The Brazilian public bureaucracy as well as the industrial bourgeoisie are out of the dominant political coalition since late 1980s. Yet, as it is engaged in the 1995 Managerial Reform.
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Burocracia pública e reforma gerencial
2007. The Brazilian public bureaucracy as well as the industrial bourgeoisie are out of the dominant political coalition since late 1980s. Yet, as it is engaged in the 1995 Managerial Reform.(Paper Revista do Serviço Público). French version available.
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Uma sociedade doente
2007. The Brazilian society is seek because the it faces quasi-stagnation and crisis and has not a clear assessement of the problems it faces.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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É a competição, estúpido...
2006. A large interview on the Brazilian economy and the lack of a national growth strategy in a global environment defined by high competition among nation-states. (Interview to Laura Greenhalgh: O Estado de S.Paulo).
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Acordo nacional no início do século XXI
2006. In order to become again a real nation Brazil needs a encompassing national agreement, where the association between businessmen and the state bureaucracy is key. (Note in , Economia Brasileira na Encruzilhada)
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Os mitos raciais
2006. Brazil is a mixed country but it is not a racial democracy. Affirmative policies are required to reduce racial inequality.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
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Dualidades brasileiras
2004. Com José Marcio Rego. A more precise discussion of Ignacio Rangels dualist theory than our basic paper on Rangel, "Um mestre da economia brasileira: Ignacio Rangel". (Note: Valor)
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Macunaíma e Emília na terra do amanhã
2004. Brazil has a strong cultural but a poor national identity. Both identities are not necessarily correlated. (Article: Folha S.Paulo, Mais!).
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Economia política do gasto social no Brasil desde 1980/85
2004. While income per capita increased 8.5% in 20 years, social expenditures, 43.4%. Given the improvement in social standards this demonstrates that social expenditures are effective. (Note: Revista Econômica)*
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Desenvolvimento e Crise no Brasil (5a. edição)
2003. The patterns of economic development and the political pacts in Brazil from Vargas (1930) to Lula (2003). 5th revised edition almost doubling the size of the book. English version available. (Book: Editora 34)
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Prefácio à edição francesa de Crise Econômica et Reforma do Estado no Brasil.
2002. A critique of the macroeconomic policy led by Brazil after 1995. Portuguese version of the French edition of Crise Economique et Réforme de lÉtat au Brésil. (Unpublished).
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A economia brasileira às vésperas das eleições de 2002
2002. The poor economic performance of the Cardoso administration will probably cause the defeat of José Serra to Lula. Behind it was the mistaken idea that Brazil could develop with foreign savings. (Berlin, Adenauer Foundation)
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Identidade e auto-estima do brasileiro
2000. Brazilian tend to identify themselves negavitvely. (Notes of the intervention in Simpósio Freud: Conflito e Cultura Brasil: Psicanálise e Modernismo).
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After the elites, civil society's democracy in Brazil
2000. This paper presents a hystorical typology of democracy: elites or Schumpeterian democracy, civil society"s public opinions democracy, participatory democracy, and deliberative democracy. Brazil is in transition from elites democracy to public opinions democracy. Portuguese version available. (Paper: IPSA Congress, Quebec)
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Da política de elites à democracia de sociedade Civil
2000. Brazil, as all new democracies, is a "democracy of elites ". Yet, there are indication of a transition to what may be called "democracy of civil society", where public opinion and public non state political advocacy organizations become relevant. English version available. (In Reis Velloso edited book)
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Pobres Elites Iluminadas
2000. Brazil, as all new democracies, is an "elites' democracy". Yet, there are indication of a transition to what may be called "civil societys democracy", where public opinion become relevant (Estudos Avançados, USP)*
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Crise Econômica e Reforma do Estado no Brasil
1996. The crisis of the state interpretation. Economic and political analysis of the crisis starting in 1980 in Latin America. English and French versions availalble. (Book: Editora 34)
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Brésil: Modernisation inachevée et pactes politiques
1994. A new political pact of the Brazilian elites around the idea of national development is a condition for political legitimacy and economic growth. Portuguese and English versions available.(Paper: Problèmes d Amérique Latine)*
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Incomplete modernization and political pacts in Brazil
1993. Given social heterogeneity and 'contradictory citizenship', there is not a basic social contract in Brazil, nor an informal growth oriented political pact (that may act as a substitute for a social contract). Available in French and Portuguese. (English version published only in this site).
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A modernização incompleta e pactos políticos
1993. Given its extreme social heterogeneity and the 'contradictory citizenship', there is not a social contract in Brazil. In the recent past, informal growth oriented political pacts replaced a social contracts. The solution for the present crisis depends on the definition of a not growth oriented political pact. French and English versions available.(Paper in book edited by Sola e Paulani).
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A crise da América Latina: Consenso de Washington ou crise fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. English, French, and Spanish versions available. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 21(1), abril 1991: 3-23.
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La crisis de América Latina. ¿Consenso de Washington o crisis fiscal?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English, and French versions available. (Paper: Pensamiento Iberamericano)
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La crise de la Amérique Latine: Consensus de Washington ou crise budgétaire?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Problèmes dAmerique Latine).
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Economic crisis in Latin America: Washington consensus or fical crisis approach?
1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, French, and Spanish versions available.
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Populism and economic policy in Brazil
1991. Economic populism, left’s protectionism, and the right’s monetarist orthodoxy are together major obstacles to consistent and rational economic policies and reforms. Portuguese version with the title "Ideologias econômicas e democracia no Brasil" available. (Paper: Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs)
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O governo Collor e a modernidade em tempos incertos
1991. Collor is rather a modern conservative than a neo-liberal politician. Ideology and modernity in Brazil. (Note: Novos Estudos CEBRAP)*
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Os Tempos Heróicos de Collor e Zélia
1991. Collection of articles analysing the rights and wrongs that characterized the first two extraordinary years of the Collor administration. After that, a change of ministry inaugurated the rendition of Brazil to the Washington consensus. (Editora Nobel)
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Crise e renovação da esquerda na América Latina
1990. The three versions of the old left (communist, social-democrat, and developmentalist) are in crisis because lack a growth strategy. Yet, a modern left is emerging. (Paper: Lua Nova)
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A estratégia da competitividade e do interesse nacional
1990. This paper discusses two alternatives - neo-liberal and modern progressive - and asserts that Brazil is already sufficiently mature to protect its the national interest. (Paper in the book A Crise do Estado)
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Economic ideologies and the consolidation of democracy in Brazil
1989. The transition to democracy was an outcome of successful political popular-business pact, but mistaken ideoloiges originated in old nationalism and left populism, and on conservative clientelism, opportunism, social conservatism, monetarism, crude liberalism, and subordinated internationalism represent an obstacle to democratic consolidation and growth in Brazil. Portuguese version available.
(Paper in book edited by Diane Ethier)
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Expériences d'un gouvernement: le ministère des Finances au Brésil
1989. A testimony to IUPERJ on the author's experience as Finance Minister in Brazil. I receive the finance ministry when the Great Debt Crisis of the 1980s reaches its peak with the failure of the Cruzado Plan. The emergence "Bresser Plan", and the negotiation of the foreign debt. Available in Portuguese, and in an extended version. (Published in Problèmes d'Amérique Latine)
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Ideologias econômicas e democracia no Brasil
1989. The transition to democracy was an outcome of successful political popular-business pact, but mistaken ideoloiges originated in old nationalism and left populism, and on conservative clientelism, opportunism, social conservatism, monetarism, crude liberalism, and subordinated internationalism represent an obstacle to democratic consolidation and growth in Brazil. (Paper: Estudos Avançados). English version available.
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The perverse macroeconomics of debt, deficit and inflation in Brazil
1989. There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation. Portuguese version available.(Paper in book edited by Fukuchi and Kagami).
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Experiências de um governo
1988. A testimony to IUPERJ (Wanderley Guilherme dos Santos) on the authors experience as Finance Minister of Brazil. Available in French, and also an extended and revised version.(Discussion paper, IUPERJ)
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Estado regulador y pacto democrático en América Latina
1985 {1986}. The Entrepreneurial or Producer State was essential to Latin Americas primitive accumulation and industrialization. Now, in the new stage that the more advanced Latin American countries are entering, it is time for the the Regulatory and the Social State. Yet, this transition is taking place together with the transition to democracy, a major debt crisis, and a neo-liberal ideological ofensive. Portuguese version available. (Paper: in book edited by Atilio Boron)*
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Estado regulador e pacto democrático na América Latina
1985. The transition from the Entrepreneurial to the Regulatory State in Latin America is taking place in the middle of a financial (debt) crisis, the advancement of neo-liberal ideology, and the transition to democracy, after the state completed its role of promoting primitive accumulation. Spanish version available. (Paper in book edited by Atilio Boron Portuguese version just published here)
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Possible political pacts after redemocratization
1985 (1988). With the transiction to democracy and the election of Tancredo Neves the probability of a populist political pact is small. The alternatives after democratization are a conservative pact based on the great bourgeoisie, or a progressive one based on the middle classes.Portuguese version available. (Paper in book edited by Chacel, Falk e Fleischer)
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Os pactos políticos possíveis depois da redemocratização
1985. With the transiction to democracy and the election of Tancredo Neves the probability of a populist political pact is small. The alternatives after democratization are a conservative pact based on the great bourgeoisie, or a progressive one based on the middle classes. English version available. (Paper in the book Pactos Políticos)
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Development and Crisis in Brazil
1984. Economic development, political pacts, and crises in Brazil from 1930 to the early 1980s. English translation of the Brazilian fourth edition of Portuguese edition available. (Book: Westview Press)
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Semi-verdades e falsas idéias sobre o Brasil
1983. New historical facts demand new interpretations. Brazil is not anymore a underdeveloped country, multinationals are not the cause of underdevelopment, the bourgeoisie is not authoritarian, technobureaurcrats are not mere staff to the businessmen, income does not necessarily concentrate.(Paper: Novos Estudos Cebrap)
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Six interpretations of the Brazilian social formation
1982 (1984). An overview of the political and economic interpretations of Brazil before and after 1964. The two interpretations of Brazil before 1964 (agrarian vocation and national-bourgeois) and the four after 1964 (imperialist, functional-capitalist, dependency, and authoritarian modernization). Portuguese version available. (Paper: Latin American Perspectives).
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Seis interpretações sobre o Brasil
1982. An overview of the political and economic interpretations of Brazil before and after 1964. The two interpretations of Brazil before 1964 (agrarian vocation and national-bourgeois) and the four after 1964 (imperialist, functional-capitalist, dependency, and authoritarian modernization). English version available. (Paper: Dados)*
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A política econômica endógena
1981. Economic policy is becoming endogenous as the state gets imobilized for fiscal and financial reasons.
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O Estado na economia brasileira
1977. In late 1974, the debate on the statization signals the beginning of the transition to democracy in Brazil. The bourgeoisie is the accuser, the state s technobureaucracy, the defendant. (Paper:Ensaios de Opinião)
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Estado e Subdesenvolvimento Industrializado
1977. The authoritarian, income concentrating, and technobureaucratic-capitalist economic and political model of growth during the miltary regime. (Book: Editora Brasiliense)
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A economia do subdesenvolvimento industrializado
1975. The basic characteristics of growth model that prevailed during the military regime: the technobureaucratic-capitalist model of industrialized underdevelopment. In macroeconomic terms it was based on the supply side on the production of luxury goods, on the demand side, on concentration of income from the middle-class upwards. (Estudos Cebrap)
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El nuevo modelo brasileño de desarrollo
1974. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Portuguese and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
(Paper: Desarrollo Economico)
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O novo modelo brasileiro de desenvolvimento
1973. The "new development model" begins in Brazil in the late 1960s, and later I called "modelo de subdesenvolvimento industrializado". Contrarily to what Celso Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. Spanish and English versions available. This paper elaborates on the 1970 article, "Dividir ou multiplicar: A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira".(Paper: Revista Dados)
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Dividir ou multiplicar? A distribuição da renda e a recuperação da economia brasileira
1970. My first analysis of the "new development model" that begins in Brazil in the late 1960s. Contrarily to what Furtado predicted, income concetration benefiting the middle classes was behind the resumption of growth as it made aggregate demand consistent with the production of luxury consumption goods by multinationals. "O novo modelo de desenvolvimento" (1973) elaborates on this paper.####(Paper: Visão)
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Desenvolvimento e Crise no Brasil 1930-1967 (1a. edição, 1968)
1968. Economic, social and political development between 1930 and 1960 crisis thereafter, up to 1967. New historical facts turn inviable Vargas' national-developmentalist potical pact. (Book: Zahar,1st. edition)
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