NDE - Applied Texts


Documentos 61 a 99 de 99



Doença holandesa e indústria (coletânea)

2010. Livro que contém os trabalhos apresentados no 4o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas.



Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)

2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still believe that foreign savings cause growth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)



Doença holandesa e desindustrialização (Valor, 25.11.09)

2009. Uma doença holandesa moderada e a consequente desindustrialização são evidente. Nega-se o fato porque no momento em que isto for reconhecido não restará alternativa senão mudar a política cambial. Valor Econômico, 25.11.2009



The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?

2009. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)



Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa

2008. With Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda. Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. (Paper in Nova Economia).



Argentina neutraliza doença holandesa com retenções (Valor, 7.10.08)

2008. Argentina neutralizes its Dutch disease by imposing a tax (retención) on exports. If they were eliminated, the peso would proportionally appreciate and farmers would have no gain. (Article: Valor).



Existe doença holandesa no Brasil?

2008. With Nelson Marconi. In Brazil the Dutch disease is not as serious as in oil countries, but it is sufficiently serious to cause gradual deindustrialization. Paper in edited book. (Paper in Doença Holandesa e Indústria)



Política industrial e câmbio (Folha, 19.5.08)

2008. Lula's new industrial policy is welcomed, but it dos not replace a non-competitive exchange rate.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism in Latin America

2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)



The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)



Chained cycles of society and the state in Brazil

2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, "Nação e Desenvolvimento", corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , "Democracia e Justiça Social", begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)





Macroeconomia da Estagnação

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Esgotado nas livrarias. Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book.



Neutralização da doença holandesa (Valor, 31.05.07)

2007. The competent neutralization of the Dutch disease requires an export contribution on the goods that profit from abudandant and cheap natural resources. Such contributibution must be marginal, keep high profits of producers, while moves upward the supply curve of the product and limits apreciation of the real. The money of the contribution should be used to create a stabilization fund for primary commodities. (Article: Valor).



Ganho ao invés de confisco (Estado, 18 a 22.05.07)

2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)



Administrar dólar é fundamental (Valor, 18.05.07)

2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)



Macroeconomia da estagnação e novo desenvolvimentismo

2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington's conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Updated and improved version of "Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional". (Paper in book edited by Bresser-Pereira)



Hay espacio para un nuevo desarrollismo (Pagina 12, 29.4.07)

2007. Large interview to José Natanson on new developmentalism, Brazil and Argentina. (Pagina 12).



Desindustrialização e doença holandesa (Folha, 09.04.07)

2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



El nuevo desarrollismo y la ortodoxia convencional

2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Portuguese and English versions available. (Paper: Economía Unam)



O novo desenvolvimentismo e a ortodoxia convencional

2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Revista São Paulo em Perspectiva)



Doença holandesa e estagnação (Folha, 04.12.06)

2006. The causes of the desindustrialization and quasi-stagnation of the economy are a non-neutralized Dutch disease and the policy of growth with foreign savings. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



É a competição, estúpido... (Estado, 26.11.06)

2006. A large interview on the Brazilian economy and the lack of a national growth strategy in a global environment defined by high competition among nation-states. (Interview to Laura Greenhalgh: O Estado de S.Paulo).



Prefácio a Agricultura Empresarial

2006. Writing a book on entrepreneurial agriculture, Antonio José de Oliveira Costa understood the risk that the Dutch Disease represents to farmers. (Preface to Agricultura Empresarial)



The new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy

2006. Paper comparing three growth strategies old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. An improved version available with the title "Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism".(Paper Economie Appliquée).



A China vai se curvar? (Folha, 01.08.05)

2005 China evluated 2,1% the yuan, but this does not mean that she will submit to the US. The secret of her enormous growth has been to reject foreign savings and foreing advices.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Macroeconomia Pós-Plano Real: As Relações Básicas

2005. The perverse macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy combining high interest rate and low exchange rate with growth with foreign savings and quasi-stagnation. (In edited book, Novo Desenvolvimentismo)*



La Politique Macroéconomique Brésilienne (1994-2003) et le Second Consensus de Washington

2004. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Translation of "O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-estagnação do Brasil". (Paper: Problèmes d'Amérique Latine)*



Brazil's quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy

2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy adopted in the Cardoso administration. Foreign finance does not cause growth. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*



O salto da poupança interna (Folha, 11.10.04)

2004. Between 1998 and 2003 foreign savings fell 5% and domestic savings increased correspondingly, financed by a reduction in real wages (brought by exchange rate depreciation) and a diminution of the budget deficit. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



The Second Washington Consensus and Latin Americas Quasi-Stagnation

2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)



Macroeconomia do Brasil pós-1994

2003. The perverse macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy combining high interest rate and low exchange rate with growth with foreign savings and quasi-stagnation. (Paper: Análise Econômica)*



Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento: o Brasil e o segundo Consenso de Washington

2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate overevaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Portuguese version available: O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-Estagnação da Economia Brasileira. (Paper: BNDES 50 Years)*



Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade

2001. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy - particularly of the high interest rates - adopted from 1995. Originally it was written as a document to PSDB. It is one of the founding papers of New Developmentalism. Spanish version available. (Paper/document: Revista de Economia Política, July 2002).*



O fim do triunfalismo neoliberal

1994. Neoliberal triumphalism is dead. Democratic consolidation in Latin America and Eastern Europe will not be achieved by dismantling the state organization, but by rebuilding it. (Article in "Folha de S. Paulo"),



A crise da América Latina: Consenso de Washington ou crise fiscal?

1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. English, French, and Spanish versions available. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 21(1), abril 1991: 3-23.



La crise de la Amérique Latine: Consensus de Washington ou crise budgétaire?

1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Problèmes dAmerique Latine).



La crisis de América Latina. ¿Consenso de Washington o crisis fiscal?

1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt and a fiscal crisis of the state crisis. Portuguese, English, and French versions available. (Paper: Pensamiento Iberamericano)



Economic crisis in Latin America: Washington consensus or fical crisis approach?

1991. An early critique of the Washington consensus. A systematic analysis of the Latin American crisis as a foreign debt crisis and a fiscal crisis of the state. Portuguese, French, and Spanish versions available. (English version not published: just available in this site).




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