The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

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Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

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Texto para Discussão


Documentos 1 a 49 de 49



Secular stagnation in the framework of rentier-financier capitalism and globalization

2017. Rentier-financier capitalism is in economic crisis since 2008 and in political crisis since 2016. The secular stagnation issue was brought again to the fore, in so far as capitalism turned again liberal (instead of developmental) since 1980. But it is more likely that rich countries will face low growth, financial instability, and increasing inequality, unless they are able to criticize economic liberalism. (Paper for Berlin conference)



Why the 'Rest' doesn't need foreign finance

2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don't incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)



How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resource curse

2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.



Desenvolvimento econômico, sofisticação produtiva e valor-trabalho

2017. Em países em desenvolvimento a sofisticação produtiva e o aumento da produtividade podem ser melhor explicados pela transferência de trabalhadores e técnicos para os setores mais sofisticados, do que pelos rendimentos crescentes, que são mais relevantes para os países ricos.



Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries

2015. Pre-industrial countries are supposed to realize their capitalist revolution in a global political famework that requires that they are democratic. But today's rich and middle income countries made it while their regimes was authoritarian. (Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n.410, january 2016). Publicado no Brazilian Journal of Political Economy.



Models of developmental state

2016. All industrial revolutions happened in the framework of a developmental state. We can distinguish in history four basic models of developmental state. Portuguese version available.(Texto p/ Discussão)



Reflecting on New Developmentalism and classical developmentalism

2015. New Developmentalism is a theory that was preceded by Classical Developmentalism. It focus on the equilibrium of five macroeconomic prices, and of the two macro accounts, particularly the current or external account.



Industrial policy and exchange rate skepticism

2015. With Fernando Rugitsky. Classical Developmentalism (Prebisch et al.) was skeptical in relation to exchange rate policy, preferring industrial policy on the form of high import taxes, while for New Developmentalism the neutralization of the tendency to the cyclical and chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate is the key policy to be adopted. (Paper Cambridge Journal of Economics)





Modelos de estado desenvolvimentista

2016. All industrial revolutions happened in the framework of a developmental state. We can distinguish in history four basic models of developmental state. (Paper to be published - TD-412). English version available.



Estado, estado-nação e formas de intermediação política

2016. This paper, first, situates the nation-state historically, as a product of the capitalist revolution. Second, it distinguishes the state (the law system and the organization that guarantees it) from the nation-state or country (the territorial political unit formed by a nation, a state and a territory). Third, it defines nation, civil society and class coalitions, understanding that they are forms of society politically organized, which role is to act as intermediary between society and the state. Fourth, it uses these concepts plus the ones of relative autonomy and of anteriority to understand the ever changing relation between the state and society, where in early moments the state or its elites assumed the lead, and later, as democratization takes place, the protagonist role changed gradually to the people. The paper emphasizes the class coalitions, and argues that behind the two basic forms or economic and political organization of capitalism - developmentalism and economic liberalism - there are the correspondent class coalitions.



Brazil's 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

2015. Texto para Discussão 399. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest. (Discussion paper). More actualized version available.





Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

2015. With Marcus Ianoni. A theoretical discussion of developmental class coalitions, and its application in three experiences: mercantilism, Bismarkism, and the Golden Years of Capitalism. (Paper to be published in edited book - Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n. 386)



Estado capaz (desenvolvimentista) e democracia em países pré-industriais

2014. The domestic and foreign (imperialism) obstacles that pre-industrial countries face to realize their national and industrial or capitalist revolution. (EESP/FGV discussion paper 367)





Desenvolvimentismo e política econômica: um cotejo entre Vargas e Perón

Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca e Andrés Ferrari Haines.



The new developmentalism as a Weberian ideal type

2012 (2015). New developmentalism and its structuralist development macroeconomics is theory/strategy, here compared with old developmentalism and liberal orthodoxy. (Paper in book in homage of Roberto Frenkel)



Os três ciclos da sociedade e do Estado

2012. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice" (Texto para Discussão 308)





Democracy and capitalist revolution

2011. Texto para Discussão.



A organização e o novo conceito de capital no capitalismo dos profissionais

2011. Discussion Paper not published elsewhere. (TD-279)



Cinco modelos de capitalismo

2011. There are three models of developed capitalism (liberal-democractic or Anglo-Saxon, social or European model, and Japanese model and two models of developing capitalism: the Asian developmental model and the liberal-dependent model. (Texto para Discussão 280)). English version available



Why did democracy become consolidated only in the twentieth century?

2011. (Paper) The final version of this paper is Democracy and capitalist revolution,but I decided to conserve this earlier version.



A construção política do estado

2010. Texto para Discussão.



Estado, estado-nação e revolução capitalista

2010. Paper in two parts: first, basic concepts like state, nation-state and civil society; second, the role of politics in the democratic construction of the state. This text originated "Estado, estado-nação e formas de intermediação social" e em "A construção política do Estado". (Texto para discussão EESP/FGV 272)







Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur

2009. Texto para Discussão com Marcio Holland.





A descoberta da inflação inercial

2009. Texto para Discussão.





Desenvolvimento econômico e revolução capitalista

2008. Economic development as well as nations, the modern state, and the nation-state are outcomes of the Capitalist Revolution - this tectonic structural change formed by three sub-revolutions: the Commercial, the National and the Industrial revolutions. (Discussion paper)



Desenvolvimento, crescimento e salário

2008. Texto para Discussão.











The two methods of economics

2006. Texto para Discussão.



Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa

2005. Com Paulo Gala. Texto para Discussão.



Desenvolvimento como estratégia nacional

2005. Texto para Discussão.





The relative autonomy of macroeconomics, a methodological approach

1996. Texto para Discussão com Gilberto Tadeu Lima.



The political origin of economic problems

1994. Paper com Yoshiaki Nakano (Texto para Discussão)





Acumulação de capital, lucros e juros

1989. Texto para Discussão.



Investment decision and the interest rate in normal and exceptional times

1991. Based on research conducted in 1970 and repeated in 1990, this paper shows that, in 'abnormal times', when the interest rate is abnormally high, business enterprises' decisions on investment take into consideration the interest rate more attentively than they do in normal times. (Paper presented to LASA meeting)



The perverse macroeconomics of debt, deficit and inflation in Brazil

1989 (Texto para Discussão) There is a perverse logic in the Brazilian macroeconomic system involving foreign debt, fiscal deficit and inertial inflation.



A decisão de investir, os lucros e os juros

1970. Adopting a classical perspective, this paper argues that variations in the expected profit rate and the corresponding shifts of the marginal efficiency of capital curve are more important in explaining investments than variations in the interest rate. I further developed this analysis in "Acumulação de capital, lucros e juros". (Paper: Texto para Discussão)




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