Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira and Yoshiaki Nakano
Revista de Economia Política, 21(2) julho 2002: 146-177. Documento preparado por solicitação do Presidente do PSDB, Dep. José Aníbal, por Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira e Yoshiaki Nakano. São Paulo, janeiro, 2002. O debate provocado por este paper encontra-se em dossiê neste site.
To resume economic growth after 20 years of quase-stagnation is a real possibility, provided that the growth strategy combines macroeconomic stability with a deliberate growth oriented policies. The Real Plan stabilized prices, but, as a trade-off, the interest rate skyrocketed while the exchange rate, even after the 1999 flutation, remained artificially appreciated. And unemployment remained a major problem. This means that macroeconomic stability was not achieved. To do that it is necessary to invert the present macroeconomic equation, reducing the basic interest rate (what is perfectly possible, since it is defined by the Central Bank, and is considerably higher than the one in countries with similar country risk classification), while depreciating the real. Macroeconomic stability plus active, export oriented, industrial and commercial policies will lead the country to the road of economic growth.