Um estudo empírico da substituição da poupança interna pela externa no Brasil

Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, Eliane Araújo, Paulo Gala

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This paper aims to investigate the relations between the real exchange rate, the foreign and the domestic savings. The appreciation of the national currency caused by the finance of the current account deficit leads to the reduction of the expected rate of profit in the tradable goods sector, which results into a fall of the domestic savings and into the substitution of foreign for domestic savings. The econometric analysis carried out for the Brazilian economy indicates that there is a stable relationship between long-term exchange rate and domestic savings, and depreciation on the real exchange rate have positive and significant impact on domestic savings between 2002 and 2013. The results of the estimates remains even when the period is divided into two samples, following the tests that indicated the existence of a structural break in the model in 2002. Furthermore, the estimates for the two samples show a clear substitution for the foreign for the domestic savings.

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